Dear Architecture Grads: What Matters Most?

Job_choices021

In my blog post last week titled “Dear Architecture Graduates: Be Ready, Relentless and Lucky,” the first item is strategy. To get a job particularly during the Great Recession, you have to first think: what matters most to me? And then act accordingly, regardless of that dreaded fear of the unknown. Bold choices bring richness you never imagined.

What are your priorities? What will you trade today to get something better later?

In hindsight, I used six factors (money/job, architecture, intern, location, firm, role) as building blocks - see the sketch. It’s more flexible in practice than it appears. I added one more- see below. Here’s how those choices looked in real life.

Hindsight History – A Very Brief Version

Right out of school, I scored my main goal - an architecture internship – by forfeiting my location. In The Kansas City Star, no architecture firms were advertising thanks to a recession. Instead, there’s an ad: “Architecture Graduate: Will work for free. Call Tom 555-5555.” Desperate times. Tom motivated me. 

At the same time, The Wall Street Journal posted an article that said western Montana had a construction boom and an architect shortage. So I hightailed it 1400 miles to Hamilton, Montana and the Bitterroot Valley.

Job 1 – Money, Architecture, Intern. First day, I landed a job. It was far from ideal. Ok, it was actually a bit strange.

Job 2 – Plus Firm, People, Role. After two months I got a job at a firm that I admired in Missoula, Montana. I got maximum responsibility working with people I admired and liked.  

The seventh factor: People You LikeIt sits between Firm You Admire and Role You Seek. Initially I thought Firm incorporated People, but realized you can like the people and not the firm. 

Job 3 – Plus Location, Minus Firm. Just as I moved home to Kansas City, another recession hit. A large EA firm that was expanding their architecture arm hired me to lead an historic rehab in Brooklyn. Great role, project, and people.    

Job 4 – Plus Firm, Minus Role. I finally landed a job at a young hip design firm, once again trading off a choice role for another priority. Back to the drawing board, literally.

I didn’t attain a great role again until I started my own firm. That is another story, brought on by, yes, a third recession. Rolling recessions shaped my life, my views – and what we built, who we are today collectively. The Great Recession is shaping yours.    

What I Learned That Might Help You

You make the best situation out of what you have, based on your priorities. That’s how it works, I think. Make some choices no one else would. Be daring. You are far more flexible early in your career, less tied to location, roles, even industry. Use it to your advantage.

During difficult times, a more detailed breakdown of your priorities may help you see value in smaller wins. Like getting any job. Or paying the bills. Always think in terms of trades.

Start today with: What matters most?

Dear Architecture Graduates: Be Ready, Relentless, and Lucky

Wing_walking_m

A couple of months ago, I wrote a piece for my mid-career architect friends who had recently lost their jobs, titled “Dear Unemployed Architects: You’ve Been Given a Gift.” With it, I got lots of gifts back and not all of them flattering. Taught me a few lessons.

Extra time is not a gift for recent grads; you achieved a milestone and then fell into the abyss of no jobs. So my article made you angry; I apologize. Since then, I have been pondering how to help newly minted graduates find jobs, knowing that the odds are stacked against you.

 

You are in a tsunami, or actually two. There’s the recession, which is a depression for construction (25-30% unemployment) plus the industry is seeing large scale changes with permanent job shifts. It’s stunning.

Knowing that context doesn’t help you get a job. Maybe it will help you get more creative, take bolder action, be quicker to adapt. You need to be more prepared than anyone else, relentlessly persistent, and lucky – at the right place at the right time with the right answers speaking to an open mind.

Some people will get jobs. You want to be one of those. That’s your job right now. Position yourself to be one of the few, not one of the many. Make forward actions every day.

 

Here’s a few ideas. They fall into job searching, surviving, and the long view. It’s a long list… by no means complete. Take what fits you.

  1. Plan your priorities. What matters to you? Location, firms, project types, your role, the people you’ll work with, multi-disciplined firm, money? What must you have to survive, and what will you forfeit for now?
  2. Investigate firms as though you were becoming a partner. Get everything you can about their work, clients, people, recognition, other offices, philosophy, history. Craft your resume and letter to fit the kind of work that they do.
  3. Make your own very simple letter head, card, and portfolio cover. Be consistent and clean. While it’s the content that counts, we are designers. Clean, simple works.
  4. Better to show three great projects than ten mediocre ones. Edit and create good stories.
  5. Select your projects and stories to fit a particular firm’s interests. For example, if they do hospitals, use hospital projects or at least institutional projects. Research their project type and talk about key issues. Treat your submission and interview like we do marketing RFQ’s.
  6. It’s your story. Tell it well, compelling, dramatic, true, highlighting your best moments. Have very short versions, and also more detailed responses.
  7. If you have a sense of project types or methods that you are intrigued by or that you think will have more work, then become an expert in trends and case studies. Write up your findings and begin blogging about it. Find firms in that area.
  8. Unlike any prior generation, you can research and establish your identity online. And form architectural networks. Use it extensively and creatively. More on this down the list.
  9. Know recent case studies in BIM, green building, Revit – the big three that will get you a job now. Be conversant. Publish ideas online, become an expert.
  10. Potential growth areas (beyond the big three – BIM, Revit, and green tech): prefab, laboratories, research facilities, shared or community facilities, security of all kinds, health, aging, renovation, historic preservation, mixed use, public spaces, various high tech materials such as nano-tech, digital integration such as signage, rfid, sensors, smart grid, ubiquitous computing. More tech sends you to certain types of AE or EA firms. In KC, engineers are the first hiring because they are involved in the stimulus package ARRA money. It may not be your first choice, but you will meet wonderful people that can influence your career and be friends for life.
  11. Work in related fields like interiors, suppliers, contractors, planning, landscape, community development, government, corporate, facilities management, and so on. Many have architecture departments. It will help you get an architecture job later or you might find your calling in these related fields, some which have stronger prospects than general architecture consulting.
  12. Make quick speeches – 45 second responses – for major questions. Your best projects, best teachers, why you chose this field, what projects or architects do you like, where you see yourself in five or ten years, what are your special talents, why do you fit this job. Essentially: What will you bring to my firm?
  13. Be active on Architizer and key groups on Linked In.
  14. Be creative with online tools, witness this google story.
  15. Build an online presence – perhaps more critical than a resume. Share ideas, develop relationships, ask questions. Update daily; it’s a commitment.
  16. Make videos and podcasts. Post links to your network.
  17. Find people that can help you; look for their online or real time activities and be there.
  18. Go where the people go with whom you want to connect. Do not sit back.
  19. If your resume isn’t working, ask what didn’t catch their eye. Ask to see a good example but be thoughtful about asking. If the moment doesn’t seem right, don’t ask.
  20. Be persistent. Keep your name in front of them. Be succinct. Don’t linger.
  21. Know what projects are being planned in various cities. Cast a wide net. Find out who is pursuing them. Send your resume etc to those firms.
  22. Move to North Dakota. Really.
  23. If you are traveling, go places that you hear have work. Always look for work.
  24. Don’t limit to just firms who are advertising. Work will pick up and you want to be the one. Try to get a sense of the firms that have new projects on the horizon.
  25. Our interviewees talked with their future co-workers, who always gave their opinions the moment the door shut. Know who they are too, as much as possible.
  26. Be nice, charming if possible, and humble. You’re new. They earned their spot.
  27. If you have friends with jobs, keep in contact, let them know how you are doing and what new stuff you have developed. And ask about jobs, projects, other firms.
  28. Do not let three days pass without posting useful information to your blog.
  29. Ask everyone what else they would do, who they would call, if they were looking.
  30. Do not sit at home. Go to the library, café, museum, park. Learn ideas, it will trigger new thoughts.
  31. Be flexible, adaptable, in every way. Keep your priorities in order.
  32. Be frugal. So much material exists on living cheaply. Draw on your friends and family and offer something in return. Do work for people, take care of things for them. Share costs. Give what you have to get something back.
  33. Many AIA chapters allow new grads to join for free for a year. Become active. Get to know people. Keep your ear to the ground and find out where you would like to work.
  34. Visit at least one architect’s office every day. For places you really want to work, keep on the regular rounds – say once every couple of weeks. Otherwise, make it a new place every day. Stop in, say hello. Ask if the person you know is available. Just checking for possible jobs. Stay under 1 minute. If you have some idea for them, even better. Drop it off, with your resume, business card, and a note attached. Blend face-time with online time.
  35. Learn to communicate in words, written and verbal. Join a toastmasters group or equivilent.
  36. Be more places, try more things, with clearer answers than the next ten people. Or next 100. It’s the Olympics of job searches; leave no rocks unturned.
  37. Be able to say state your strengths in under a minute and be compelling. Tape it and listen back or try it on someone. It’s no fun but you’ll improve through practice.
  38. Be flexible with your approach but not in your priorities. Get the best deal that you can given the landscape. And then make it into a gold mine or move on when you can.
  39. Blog about local projects and events. Take pictures, show progress, make comments. Document changes in the city, photographs, stories.
  40. Blog about happenings in the architecture and design communities. Same deal – take pictures, make comments. Encourage people to use you as a broadcaster.
  41. Write book reviews; post on Goodreads, your blog, twitter, linked in, and facebook.
  42. Volunteer at community events. Be seen. Get to know people.
  43. Mentor others. You have more benefits than you might realize. Highly educated, with drawing, design, and construction skills, plus recent college experience. Share it with people younger than you. Or older.
  44. Look for mentors. They may be on twitter or be your neighbor. Take their advice seriously, think about it, and ask for more. They will like you for it. We all know it’s tough.
  45. Ask your AIA to assign a mentor or grow one from the people you meet. Make arrangements for regular conversations, on the phone or FTF.
  46. Be observant. Always think: what does that mean for new buildings, my career?
  47. Find out where there are jobs and in what industries. Think if there is an architectural component. Will they be building, remodeling? Bird dog it.
  48. Keep in touch with your university weekly.
  49. Draw. Paint. Make music. And yes… blog it. or sell it if possible. You are building reputation, improving your skills, and staying motivated.
  50. Imagine your whole life. Here’s a futures method for seeing further down the road from a wonderful futurist, Verne Wheelwright.
  51. Sell stuff on Ebay, Amazon, or Craigslist etc. Avoid debt. (Easier said…)
  52. Help your neighbors. And as one commenter said, do not be afraid to make money. Just make sure it’s clear when you are offering a favor and when you are looking for paid work.
  53. Become a commenter on urban or community activities. It’s not hard to be outspoken, but it is hard to be effective. Comments online are frequently worthless. Not on the NY Times. Some brilliant commenters – learn from them. They rank the comments. Become a highly ranked commenter.
  54. Walk the streets, document, create commentaries, a typology or ranking.
  55. Remake your space. Then do it again. Become versed in distances between chairs, required space for various tables and chairs, the shapes for walking, sitting, etc. Go to public spaces and see if theirs are effective. Then… yes, draw it and blog it.
  56. Make found art.
  57. Plant, grow stuff. Help in a community garden. Fresh food and getting dirty uplift the spirit.
  58. Link music to architecture. Art to architecture. Arch and interiors, signs, colors, streets. Study it. Write your thoughts and theories about it.
  59. Create a group of like-minded friends or unemployed neighbors. Chat regularly.
  60. Stay in touch with your family and friends – they are no doubt concerned about you. And they may have ideas, they may be a good shoulder or sounding board.
  61. Add education if you can afford it and have an urgency. Study something that you care about and makes you unique. For me, that’s strategic planning and communications. It took me 25 years to be ready for that. What is your special interest? So many areas outside the construction world go hand in hand with architecture. Economics for example. Business of course. Animation, environmental studies, public admin, education, journalism, art, law.
  62. Copy George Plimpton. He famously experienced high profile jobs, then wrote bestsellers about them. He boxed, played pro football, did stand-up, performed a high-wire act. Get a temporary job in one of the places you might later want to design. A sports venue, a library, a school, a shopping center, a hospital, public housing, and so on. You will forever own hands-on expertise.
  63. Or frequent these places and get to know patterns. You may never have the time to really do this again. Document it, and yes… make white papers, post them on your blog.
  64. Go work in Haiti with Cameron Sinclair’s Architecture for Humanity – if you can afford it.
  65. Go to New Orleans - last I heard they don’t have enough architects or builders. Find out who got federal money, what firms are working on it. Apply there.
  66. Journal. Keep some of it just for yourself. It’s one of the best lifelong habits and proven to make your career more focused and life more inspired.
  67. Exercise. If you’re not in shape, get there. If you are in shape, keep doing it every day. It boosts your energy, attitude and mental abilities. Stay positive.
  68. Be in touch with your spirituality. Develop your beliefs. Meditation in any form keeps us steady and happy. Plus good ideas come when your mind is alert.
  69. If you are getting interest, but no jobs, then ask why – very politely. Ask who might need your skills. And shine up your work next time, even if you just rearrange the order.
  70. Never take the same material to two job interviews. They will know it. You and your work will look tired. You need to be fresh, ready to work tomorrow. Even if you just change the order of projects, wear a different shirt, renew your ideas every day.
  71. If you are stuck, if days and weeks are going by with no bites, then change what you are doing wholesale. Change your approach. Rewrite your story. Practice out loud. Find a ready audience to play act. Record yourself. Improve your story.
  72. Write down everything that happens in your interviews. Think what went well and what didn’t. Be better next time. (These are marketing skills; marketing is like looking for a job every day, except with better resources.)
  73. Try to find out who got jobs and why. See what you can learn. If you can talk to these recent hires, see if they have any other leads that might make soon.
  74. Be nice to whoever you talk to in the firm, including the front desk person. They give more information after you leave, count on it. Even if it’s just a smile or a look, people tune into these small gestures. It all matters.
  75. Don’t wait; keep moving, because it’s your life and you want to spend it well. I believe that jobs where you serve people – like retail, libraries, hospitals, and restaurants – aid architects in learning how to read people. Very useful skill. Do that while you’re looking for a job in the industry.
  76. Be persistent.
  77. Don’t give up. There may be no better advice.
  78. Continually re-assess. Be sure that this is what you want to do. Don’t be afraid to try something else.
  79. Don’t get stuck on the word architect or designer. Deconstruct your skills – CAD, codes, rendering, model-building, construction, observation, documentation, analysis, history, building technologies, presentations, team building, community development, foreign languages. What are your skills?
  80. Teach English in China or some other country. Teach English as a second language in US; learn some other language. I guarantee long term value.
  81. Read my other list - there’s ideas for inspiration and rethinking your life.
  82. Read the comments – the first few hated it and you might relate.
  83. Read the later comments – they gave tips, links, and stories about their positive experiences.
  84. Keep your finances orderly. Get a delay on loans if possible.
  85. Take daily walks. There’s a lot of research about why walking is healthy. For architects and designers, there is the added value of being part of the environment, the streetlife. Make notes, sketches, photos. Create an album of your observations.
  86. Go to planning commission, municipal art commission, economic development, and school board meetings, even public auctions of real estate. Those developers may need some help. More than that, you will learn the process of building and running cities. And yes, please, blog it. It’s your opportunity.
  87. Don’t complain. And if you must, do it privately in your journal or while taking a walk – by yourself.
  88. From an unemployed friend: you might feel the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Be aware of these stages and take care of yourself.
  89. Get help before you need it desperately, whether emotionally or financially.
  90. Draw or paint every day. Steven Holl does.
  91. Listen to music every day. Daniel Libeskind does.
  92. Dance. With or without someone else.
  93. Hang out with positive people. That might be your regular friends, your 90 year old neighbor, or your kid sister. Or your priest. Moods are contagious. Avoid negative people. Cynicism is also contagious. Breed positive ideas.
  94. Use humor. It recharges a beaten spirit. Along with running, meditating, yoga, sleep (but not more than 7-8 hrs) and helping someone else. All work like a charm.
  95. Start a business. Every business started somewhere. You can build things with just a business license. Think about it. Do odd jobs. Team with your friends or unemployed colleagues (who might become friends) to do larger projects. I sewed tablecloths and napkins for a new restaurant. Ask around.
  96. Stay focused on why you are here and what really matters.
  97. Write me if you need encouragement or ideas. Twitter works @urbanverse.
  98. If your first option doesn’t work out, have a second option before you let go. It’s called wing walking. When traversing two wings, hang on to the first one until you’re clearly secure on the second.
  99. Check out Bob Borson‘s Ten Reasons to be an Architect and Ten Reasons to Not be an Architect. Do you relate to these lists?
  100. Look at my delicious links on jobs (56) and on architects (126). Eight crossovers. Try searching the whole list for unemployment too. and inspiration.
  101. Try to keep perspective – see yourself in the future. This time in your life will be very important. It’s a watershed era. You will think about it when you’re 80.
  102. When you get a job, help others. Return to your college, tell your story. And yes… blog about it. No matter if it’s what you wanted or not, it’s an unfolding. Make your story.

Overcoming huge difficulties makes life more poignant. Friendships from this time period will always seem more vital and deeply connected. You will be co-survivors. There is nothing small about this recession for architects and especially for recent graduates. You may send 100 resumes without a response. Don’t despair; just find a better way, change the formula to favor you.

Get used to a career in a field experiencing sweeping change. We are retooling the industry. It’s a double tsunami – the recession and massive changes. You need to retool and keep retooling. It’s going to take your full attention, agility, and some luck. Luck in terms of being at the right place, talking to the right people who are paying attention. Best way to increase your odds – sling more mud and be more strategic.

 

Yet you have some advantages. You are a digital native. Working in CAD and online is second nature to you. Your elder colleagues will depend on you for that. We have always talked with new graduates about design and theory because we know that colleges focus on those aspects. Now we also will rely on you for technological skills. And a sense of the new social world. Show people how it’s done.

 

Failure is allowed early in your career with minimal penalties. Play this card strategically. You will be able to chalk it up as experience. Celebrate any and every small success, accomplishment, and lesson. Don’t fear failure; learn from it.

Mastering the architecture profession is a 10-20 year process. Five years out, you will know all the parts except the business and management, but you need many more trials of design, construction and working with clients. By ten years, you’ll have seen most cycles and be able to adapt.

As hard as they may seem, learning BIM, Revit and green building take far less time than mastering the full profession. Concentrate on one or all of these. Each is perhaps 2-6 months of study or experience. Practice every day. Perhaps some firms will open their training sessions to you. You might ask. Or get the AIA to form a program with the firms. They are also looking for ways to keep you in the profession.

We want younger architects to remain committed to the field. We need another generation. So you have some leverage. Think how you can explain – very quickly and in a most compelling fashion – what you bring to a particular firm. Have excellent evidence of your skills. You will find work.

That’s my best random thoughts for surviving a deep recession; it’s lengthy and yet not comprehensive. If you want explanation, please ask. Or if you think this list is a complete waste, say it and why. Someone may learn from your comments – like me. Do you have other ideas for job hunting? or useful stories? If you got a job, please share how you did it, what was the key?

 

Photo: Flickr Creative Commons by Martin Pettitt “Wing Walking Display Lowestoft Air Show,” uploaded 28 July 2008.

 

What’s Next for 21st Century Cities? Part 2

Fuller_dome

Yesterday, I posted ten trends from The Futurist magazine Outlook 2010,http://bit.ly/xFR5C which I selected from approximately 80 topics and modified them to apply to cities. The trends were organized into ten domains. I covered five of them in Part I: Environmental, Government, Habitats, Health and Medicine, and Information Society.http://bit.ly/w1po5

 

Today, I look at the other four domains. (One area in Outlook 2010, “Business”, didn’t cover any issues with distinct implications for cities, as strange as that may seem.)

 

Lifting ideas from The Futurists’ prognostications and modifying them for 21st century communities, here are ten forecasts that will shape cities. I added comments in italics.

 

Lifestyles and Values

1.      Transit Oriented Cities. While 7 out of 8 Americans own cars today, only two-thirds will own cars in coming decades. We already see car sharing http://bit.ly/2gUsnk, more bikes and a strong push for public transit. The biggest change over time will be in denser, mixed used communities, based on infill and adaptive reuse to retrofit areas and for new developments.

2.      Active Older Population. The oldest segment, Centenarians, is also the fastest growing and will double. Furthermore, this group along with people over 70 is healthier, more active and has more resources. They will demand buildings and public spaces that accommodate older bodies and activities and experiences that cater to their needs.

3.      Virtual Reality as Testing Platform. While The Futurist listed VR as an area to expand research on ethics and moral dilemmas, I think that that we will also see the AEC professions, government agencies and private developers test development ideas via virtual environments. Primitive technology at this time, it may soon be a mandatory means of sharing development plans. Design professionals always wanted more public participation – be careful what you wish for! It could be a tidal wave.

Science and Technology

4.      Brain-to-Brain Telepathy. Or brain-to-thing messages. For example, we can think our house warm, lights on, windows closed, or oven cooking. Particularly useful for people with health problems such as dementia or physical disabilities.http://bit.ly/4uVs39 The twitter house experiment demonstrates the possibilities.http://bit.ly/dFIaW

5.      3D Prototype Printing. These printers which are now used for fabricating manufactured parts and making architectural models will enable people to print objects ranging from building parts to containers to furniture.http://bit.ly/8p5zs Distribution, shopping patterns and object design will change as a result.

Work and Careers

6.      Growing Workforce; Shrinking Talent Pool. Financial concerns and healthy aging may add to the workforce with delayed or partial retirement. Yet a shortage of technology workers is looming. Workplaces would need to accommodate an older workforce, and public transit and nearby services become even more important. A countertrend is increased robotics which could reduce available jobs. Furthermore, education needs a full re-vamping, integrated into all levels of activity from personal finance to upgrading our employment potential.http://bit.ly/4fGV4D

7.      Terrorism Thwarted. Jihadist rehabilitations programs sponsored by Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and others may shrink global terrorism. To me, that sounds as amazing as a cure for cancer! However, perceived problems can still change behavior and people may seek protection with gated communities, secure buildings, and fortified corporate and government facilities.

8.      China Largest Economy by 2025. China will shift to consumer driven while the US slips from the top 20 countries in GDP per capita. In addition to being a location for possible development projects, China will exert cultural influence in design, innovation, and education that will influence cities and architecture globally.

World Affairs

9.      Post-Peak Oil Era. While developed countries will shift to alternative energy sources, nations such as Saudi Arabia will be faced with high unemployment, increased poverty, and slums. These countries may become more open or more insular.

10.     Information Warfare. Security of infrastructure from energy to transportation will become increasingly troublesome. We may find centralized solutions and ubiquitous rfid “smart” technologies can create too many weaknesses. In fact, data security could cause more “off-grid” behavior unless absolutely necessary, which would change internet dependent entertainment, communications, education, and work habits. A walk in the park may find a new generation of enthusiasts.

Adding yesterday’s list, that’s twenty images of the future that will change the way we use and build cities:

Colorful Solar Energy                      Transit Oriented Cities

Flooded Coastal Cities                   Active Older Population

Local Fragmentation                       Virtual Reality as Testing Platform

China’s Ascent                                  Brain-to-Brain Telepathy

Healthy Cities                                   3D Prototype Printing

Car-Free Cities                                  Growing Workforce; Shrinking Talent Pool

Suburban Woes                               Terrorism Thwarted

Sensors and Nano-technology     China Largest Economy by 2025

Augmented Reality                          Post Peak Oil Era

Telecommuting                                Information Warfare

 

However, the list is far from complete in defining tomorrow’s cities – not that The Futurist made any bones about it being a comprehensive survey, and they did not focus on cities in particular.

In fact, the lack of attention to the built environment struck me as a complete oversight, and inspired me to write these two articles. Cities are ascending, we are an urbanized planet for the first time in history. Surely that deserves our attention in 2010.

What’s missing? Off the top of my head: megacities, slums, robotics, geo-engineering, smart infrastructure, diffused energy sources, tribal communities, prefabrication, nanotech, and urban farming, just to name a few.

Many other critical trends will shape 21st century cities, which warrants another post – big ideas looming outside the scope of Outlook 2010.

In the meantime, what do you think of the 20 trends from The Futurist? Are any more critical, exciting, or terrifying? And what do you think might be missing?

 

Image: Buckminster Fuller: Dome over Manhattan, 1960, Department of Special Collections, Stanford University Libraries, Estate of R. Buckminster Fuller

 

What’s Next for 21st Century Cities? Part 1

Megacities_growth_nat_geo_soci

 

The Futurist magazinehttp://www.wfs.org/futurist.htm published their Outlook 2010 this month with forecasts in ten domains. Somehow none of the areas focus exclusively on cities or architecture, despite the fact that the world for the first time in history is now more urban than rural.

In fact, I would call this the urban century. One of the most critical issues we are facing is how to live in and create great cities.

No doubt, historically there are times when cities were truly spectacular – Athens, Rome, Rome again, Florence to name a few. They pulsed with culture, commerce, and a sense of community.

Then technology aided industrialization and automobiles, and now globalization and social networking. Cities are simply more complicated now. Actually that’s true about life all the way around.

Yet, even now, sometimes we build something brilliant. New York City’s Central Park, the Eiffel Tower in Paris, Sydney Opera House, Beijing Olympics. At a particular moment, communities create genius in built form. Even with all the forces that tear us in multiple directions, it’s possible.

Lifting ideas from The Futurists’ prognostications and modifying them for 21st century communities, here are ten forecasts that will shape cities. I added comments in italics.

Environmental

1.      Colorful Solar Energy: MIT devised thin solar film that amounts to paint so translucent it can do double-duty as tinted windows.

2.      Flooded Coastal Cities: If we see 14 degrees centigrade warming, the oceans would rise 75 meters, which puts every coastal city at risk. Actually, I would modify this to far lower figures, say 2-6 meters, based on research, but still with devastating possibilities.http://bit.ly/2ZeePC  Heavier storm patterns will also increase damage, including risks to river cities.

Government

3.      Local Fragmentation. Local governments will exert more influence than national governments. Brookings Institute notes that fragmented metropolitan regions with multiple small municipalities damage the area’s ability to collaborate and attract jobs.http://bit.ly/bTdl6

4.      China’s Ascent. China, maybe Russia, will join the US as leading world powers by 2025. As the EU gains a unified voice, it will become a member of this group.

Habitats

5.      Healthy Cities. Cliff Moughtin, Urban Design, cites urban gardens and walkability as improvements to quality of life. Example: Freiburg, Germany.http://bit.ly/3TaRFE I would add the slow cityhttp://bit.ly/4hshXh and new urbanist movements.

6.      Car-Free Cities. Electronic sensors in Singapore charge cars as they enter the city. Paris aims to cut auto traffic by 40% by 2020, replaced with bikes.

7.      Suburban Woes. As energy costs soar, districts with spread-out services will spend more in transportation. That is, unless they build public transit and infill to create density, and address problems of aging infrastructure and next-generation residents as urban cores have learned.

Health and Medicine

8.      Sensors and Nano-technology. Health monitoring and even minor diagnosis and procedures will be done virtually, placing an additional duty on houses, especially bathrooms and kitchens. Furthermore, hospitals will be modified accordingly, shrinking examination rooms and beds while adding clinics.

Information Society

9.      Augmented Reality. Sensors, digital maps, and real-time data combine with social media to enrich our experience of cities.http://bit.ly/1y7rqI

10.     Telecommuting. US jobs filled by telecommuters could increase four-fold to 19 million by 2012. That many folks may have partial telecommuting in two years. Reduced road infrastructure could save $5 billion and wed recapture 1.5 billion commute hours. Changes to cities without rush-hour commuting would be enormous. Residences become base-camps for work and living, and neighborhoods – urban or suburban – become 24/7 communities.

That’s ten changes that apply to cities from the first five areas that The Futurist covered. They had many other points under these headings; I selected based on relevancy to cities.

Tomorrow I will add items from the second portion of their 2010 forecast. That post will cover: Lifestyles and Values, Science and Technology, Work and Careers, and World Affairs. http://bit.ly/1oLozQ

And looking at the list – where are robotics, geo-engineering, smart infrastructure, diffused energy, public space, public art, sacred places, tribal communities, local/global connections, prefabrication, mega-cities, slums, security issues, and urban farming to name a few?

Really, how could 21st century communities not be at the top of their list??